{"id":3337,"date":"2021-06-09T12:31:18","date_gmt":"2021-06-09T12:31:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gidaperakendecileri.org\/?p=3337"},"modified":"2021-06-09T12:34:06","modified_gmt":"2021-06-09T12:34:06","slug":"kuresel-ekonomide-temkinli-iyimserlik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gidaperakendecileri.org\/?p=3337","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel Ekonomide Temkinli \u0130yimserlik"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde makro geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi \u2018Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019 adl\u0131 yay\u0131n\u0131na g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde manzara de\u011fi\u015fti. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde her g\u00fcncellemede iyile\u015fen tahminlere ve h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma sinyallerine ra\u011fmen k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ve durgunluk beklentileri nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ekonomi temkinli iyimserlik i\u00e7inde. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7inse k\u0131smen belirsizliklerin h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu ancak 2020\u2019den daha iyi bir y\u0131l bekleniyor.<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>

KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Bak\u0131\u015f, 2021\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u00fcresel ekonomi ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinden yans\u0131yan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriyor. Pandemi sonras\u0131 ekonomide toparlanma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini de\u011ferlendiren Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019a g\u00f6re ge\u00e7en y\u0131l uzun s\u00fcre \u2018her g\u00fcncellemede k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen\u2019 tahminler, yerini \u2018her g\u00fcncellemede iyile\u015fen\u2019 tahminlere b\u0131rakt\u0131. K\u00fcresel ekonominin 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. \u00d6nc\u00fc veriler de bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. \u00c7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 gerileyen ve \u00f6zellikle hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde adeta \u2018\u00e7\u00f6ken\u2019 PMI verileri, son aylarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrediyor. Bu iyile\u015fme hem imalat hem de hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm i\u00e7inde AB\u2019de ilk \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130hracat pazar\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan AB\u2019de ya\u015fanacak bu toparlanma, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de olumlu bir geli\u015fme olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. <\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi ile ilgili \u2018Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019tan yans\u0131yan baz\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klar \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/span>
A\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n Pozitif Etkisi Var<\/strong><\/span>
\u2022 2020\u2019nin son \u00e7eyre\u011finde toparlanmaya ba\u015flayan beklentiler, 2021\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi sonunda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tabana oturdu. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri olumlu y\u00f6nde revizeler g\u00f6rmeye devam ediyor. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel daralma y\u00fczde 3,5 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek ve bu, y\u00fczde 6\u2019l\u0131k ilk beklentilere k\u0131yasla olduk\u00e7a pozitif. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri y\u00fczde 6\u2019lara y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda.<\/span>
\u2022 Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, a\u015f\u0131lama uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 en \u00f6nemli etmen. \u0130ngiltere, Avustralya ve \u0130srail gibi \u00f6rnekler s\u0131k\u0131 a\u015f\u0131lama prosed\u00fcrlerinin normal hayata ge\u00e7i\u015fte ne kadar etkin oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tl\u0131yor. A\u015f\u0131lama s\u00fcrecinde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lan baz\u0131 sorunlar genel trendi etkilemiyor.<\/span>
\u2022 Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dalga salg\u0131n ya\u015fanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm salg\u0131n\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu noktadan sonra ekonomik tahribat yaratabilecek bir k\u00fcresel kapanma s\u00fcreci g\u00fcndemde de\u011fil ve olmayacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span>
Enflasyon Beklentisi<\/span>
\u2022 2021\u2019de geli\u015fen \u00fclke ekonomilerinin b\u00f6lgesel daralma beklentileri i\u00e7inde en b\u00fcy\u00fck yaray\u0131 Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkelerinin almas\u0131 bekleniyor. Uzak Asya ise salg\u0131n\u0131 ilk ya\u015fayan ve s\u00fcreci ilk tamamlayan b\u00f6lge olarak, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatabilecek kapasitede g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span>
\u2022 En k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryosunun tamamen sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerindeki riskleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu noktada art\u0131k parasal geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrecinin yarataca\u011f\u0131 yan etkiler konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Bol para arz\u0131 ve yan\u0131nda gelen b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri enflasyon beklentilerini de g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/span>
\u2022 FED ve ECB ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n att\u0131klar\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n geri al\u0131nmas\u0131 s\u00fcreci k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta dengelerin yeniden de\u011fi\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7abilecek potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcrecin \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin \u2018can\u0131n\u0131 yakmadan\u2019 atlat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in verilen mesajlar s\u00fcreci yumu\u015fatsa da bahsi ge\u00e7en risk varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm g\u00fcc\u00fcyle koruyor.<\/span>
\u2022 Bu desteklere maliye politikalar\u0131 da e\u015flik etmeye devam ediyor. En son ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2,25 trilyon USD\u2019lik destek paketi bunun en somut \u00f6rneklerinden biri. Otoriteler, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn halen k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu ve s\u00fcrecin tamamen stabilize olmadan geri ad\u0131m at\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyorlar.<\/span><\/p>

Durgunlu\u011fa \u015eimdilik \u00c7are Yok<\/strong><\/span>
\u2022 Salg\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019da b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etki k\u00fcresel ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. B\u00f6lgesel olarak zaman zaman kontrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kan salg\u0131n ve k\u0131tada mevcut yap\u0131sal sorunlar durgunlu\u011fun derinle\u015fmesini k\u00f6r\u00fckledi.<\/span>
\u2022 Bug\u00fcnlerde enflasyon beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lense ve \u00f6nc\u00fc veriler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret etse de yap\u0131sal hale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen durgunluk i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm re\u00e7etesi bulmak g\u00fc\u00e7. Ekonomiler salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma ya\u015fasa da bu momentumun kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span>
\u2022 IMF\u2019nin analizlerine g\u00f6re, AB\u2019de salg\u0131n sonras\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanacak. \u00d6zellikle turizm ve lojistik sekt\u00f6rlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen etki, genel ekonomiye yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span>
\u2022 Yak\u0131n vadeli manzara g\u00f6rece olumsuz olsa da y\u0131l ortas\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi beklenen AB ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 6,2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeyle kapatt\u0131. Bu g\u00f6rece ba\u015far\u0131da, a\u00e7\u0131klanan desteklerin de katk\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck.<\/span><\/p>

Geli\u015fen \u00dclkeler H\u0131zl\u0131 Toparlan\u0131yor<\/strong><\/span>
\u2022 Geli\u015fen \u00fclke ekonomileri, salg\u0131n s\u00fcrecinden beklendi\u011fi \u00fczere daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma s\u00fcreci ile \u00e7\u0131kacaklar. Ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in \u00e7ekti\u011fi grup gerek y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim fakt\u00f6rleri potansiyelleri gerekse de adaptasyon kabiliyetleri ile avantaj sa\u011flayacaklar.<\/span>
\u2022 Salg\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in turizm gelirleri beklendi\u011fi kadar artmayacak olsa da bol likidite ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ortam\u0131, belirli miktarda riski kabullenen ve daha y\u00fcksek getiri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan portf\u00f6ylerin \u00fclkelere giri\u015fini olumlu etkiliyor. Risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131, geli\u015fen \u00fclke ekonomileri i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kazan\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u00e7in Sinyaller \u0130yi Ama\u2026<\/strong><\/span>
\u2022 G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda sadece \u00c7in ve T\u00fcrkiye, 2020\u2019yi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle kapatt\u0131. 2020\u2019de daralmaktan kurtulamayan geli\u015fen \u00fclke ekonomileri i\u00e7in 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck edecekleri bir d\u00f6nem olmaya aday.<\/span>
\u2022 Sonu\u00e7 olarak, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fanmas\u0131 beklenen geli\u015fen \u00fclke ekonomilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm pozitif. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de i\u00e7inde de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi bu grup, 2021\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u0131mlar sa\u011flayabilir.<\/span>
\u2022 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 2021\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lenen toparlanma sinyalleriyle ge\u00e7ti. A\u015f\u0131lama s\u00fcrecindeki ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren en \u00f6nemli konuydu.<\/span>
\u2022 Kal\u0131c\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemin \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Yine de yak\u0131n vadeli ajandada istihdam ve kamu maliyesi sorunlar\u0131 yer alacak.<\/span>
\u2022 Bunun yan\u0131nda devam eden destekler ve piyasalar\u0131n enflasyonist fiyatlamalar\u0131 zaman zaman karma\u015faya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Otoritelere g\u00f6re desteklere halen ihtiya\u00e7 var ve ekonomilerde topyek\u00fbn iyile\u015fme d\u00f6neminden uzaktay\u0131z. Piyasalar ise para arz\u0131 bollu\u011funun yan etkilerini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/span>
\u2022 Yerel ekonomide, b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendi yava\u015flamakla beraber devam ediyor. Hem \u00f6nc\u00fc veriler hem de anketler bu durumu teyit ediyor. Yava\u015flayan kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, ekonominin so\u011futulma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fe yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterse de mart ay\u0131nda ya\u015fanan kur \u015foku paralelinde y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentileri, temkinli olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/span>
\u2022 Sonu\u00e7 olarak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonuna k\u0131yasla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f ve bir k\u0131sm\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7mi\u015f olsa da 2021\u2019in 2020\u2019den daha olumlu ge\u00e7ece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/span><\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde makro geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi \u2018Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019 adl\u0131 yay\u0131n\u0131na g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde manzara de\u011fi\u015fti. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde her g\u00fcncellemede iyile\u015fen tahminlere ve h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma sinyallerine ra\u011fmen k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ve durgunluk beklentileri nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ekonomi temkinli iyimserlik i\u00e7inde. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7inse k\u0131smen belirsizliklerin h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu ancak 2020\u2019den daha iyi bir y\u0131l bekleniyor. 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